Posts

Showing posts from November, 2021

NASDAQ index erases the earlier declines and trades higher on the day

Image
Dow industrial average and S&P index are still lower The NASDAQ index has erased earlier declines and trades higher on the day ahead of the Powell and Yellen testimony on Capitol Hill.  The NASDAQ index is currently up 37 points or 0.24% 15820.70.  The S&P index and Dow industrial average remains negative: Dow industrial average -215 points or -0.60% at 34924.80 S&P index -12 points or -0.26% at 4643.40 US yields remain sharply lower with the 10 year yield down nearly 10 basis points: In the forex market, the USD has moved to new lows for the day vs the EUR, JPY, CHF, AUD and NZD is early US trading.  The greenback is still higher vs the CAD (as oil declines) but has erased some of the gains in the US session.  The consumer confidence data came out weaker than expected today. Invest in yourself. See our forex education hub. December 01, 2021 at 03:10AM https://ift.tt/3xRjBbr

US November consumer confidence 109.5 vs 111.0 expected

Image
US November consumer confidence data from the Conference Board Prior was 113.8 (revised to 111.6) Jobs plentiful 58.0 vs 54.8 prior Present situation 142.5 vs 145.5 prior Expectations 87.6 vs 89.0 prior This survey was from prior to omicron so I'd expect to see a drop next month. Invest in yourself. See our forex education hub. December 01, 2021 at 03:00AM Adam Button https://ift.tt/3d1L4gK

US dollar slides as Treasury yields fall

Image
US dollar under pressure US 10-year yields are down 10 basis points today with the entire curve moving down. It reflects fear about the new covid variant after the comments from Moderna's CEO saying the vaccine might not be effective. The market is pricing out Fed rate hikes and it's particularly troublesome for USD/JPY. That pair is through the November lows and at the worst levels of the day and without much support below. What's interesting is that -- despite all the fear -- NZD and AUD are both about where they were when the omicron fears kicked off. Invest in yourself. See our forex education hub. December 01, 2021 at 02:51AM Adam Button https://ift.tt/3D6cVqQ

Major indices lower in early US trading

Image
Major indices lower in early US trading Dow leads declines with financials and real estate lagging The major indices are lower in early US trading. The Dow industrial average leads the clients with financials in real estate lagging. Consumer discretionary leads in early trading. The snapshot of the market 10 minutes into the opening are showing: Dow industrial average -247 points or -0.71% at 34882 S&P index -30.3 points or -0.66% at 4624 NASDAQ index -54 points or -0.35% at 15730 Russell 2000 is down -17 points or -0.76% at 2225 A snapshot of other markets as US stock trading gets underway shows: Spot gold plus $11.90 or 0.67% at $1796.09 Spot silver up one cent or 0.02% at $22.88 Crude oil $-2.80 at $67.17 Bitcoin is trading just above $58,000 at $58,276.80. In the US debt market, the yields are down sharply with the tenure leading the way at -9.5 basis points at 1.434%. The low for the day reached 1.419%. Last week the high yield reached 1.69% before tum...

The GBPUSD dip buyers come in against intraday support

Image
Buyers lean against the 100 hour MA The GBPUSD is higher on the day but off the earlier highs for the day.  However, the dip off the high did find support buyers against the broken 100 hour MA at 1.33261. That MA was broken in the London morning session after successfully testing the same MA in the Asian session.  If the buyers are to keep some short term control, holding that MA is required today.  Failure to do so, and the control shifts back to the sellers.   Although buyers are making a short term play, they still have work to do. More specifically, getting and staying above the 200 hour MA (green line) at 1.33765 is required.   The pair last traded above that MA on November 22, but those attempts were quickly reversed.  With the MA at a lower level now, getting and staying above the level is an easier hurdle.   However, the MA still NEEDS to be broken if the buyers are to start to take more control, and have some more "wins"....

USDJPY retests November low on the last day of the trading month

Image
The low ticks below the November 9 low of 112.719 The USDJPY reached the highest level since January 2017 last week when the price ticked up to 115.513. That high ticked above the March 2017 high of 115.501 taking the pair to the highest level since the week of January 15, 2017. However the 1.2 pip break did not impressed the buyers, and they turned to sellers.   The last four days has seen the price move lower and in the process, retrace the entire move higher in November. The previous low was set on November 9 at 112.719. The low price today ticked to 112.674 before a modest bounce. The current price trades at 112.77. Will the modest break below the November low give dip buyers a level to lean against now? It could.  Like the modest break at the highs just 5 days ago, the modest break at the lows can give the extreme traders a level to define and limit risk.  Be aware.  However, it will likely take so...

EURUSD trends higher. Reaches toward the retracement target

Image
The trend higher steps above swing areas in the run higher today The EURUSD has a solid 91 pip trading range - well above the 22 day average (about a month) of 68 pips - as the market price trends to the upside.     The pair on Monday traded above and below its 200 hour moving average (green line) currently at 1.12704, but did close near the London session high and swing area between 1.12876 and 1.12942 (see green numbered circles).  In the Asian session, traders into the price above the aforementioned swing area and then based against the level before buyers took control and pushed the price higher into the European/London session.  Higher than expected inflation data and positive German employment statistics helped to keep the move to the upside going.  The price stepped above a higher swing area between 1.13215 and 1.13315 and headed up toward the next target against the November 18 high price at...

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Image
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1263; (P) 1.1289; (R1) 1.1320; More … Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral with focus on 1.1373 resistance. Firm break there will indicate short term bottoming at 1.1185. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 55 day EMA (now at 1.1518). On the downside, break of 1.1185 will resume larger fall from 1.2348. In the bigger picture, there are various ways of interpreting the fall from 1.2348 (2021 high). It could be a correction to rise from 1.0635 (2020 low), the fourth leg of a sideway pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low), or resuming long term down trend. In any case, outlook will now stay bearish as long as 1.1703 support turned resistance holds. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 1.0635 to 1.2348 at 1.1289 would pave the way back to 1.0635. December 01, 2021 at 02:11AM ActionForex.com https://ift.tt/31h6Ri0

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Image
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3282; (P) 1.3323; (R1) 1.3357; More … GBP/USD is still bounded in consolidation from 1.3277 and intraday bias remains neutral first. Upside of recovery should be limited below 1.3512 resistance to bring another fall. On the downside, break of 1.3277 will resume the decline from 1.4248 to 1.3164 fibonacci level next. Nevertheless, break of 1.3512 will indicate short term bottoming and bring stronger rebound. In the bigger picture, the structure of the fall from 1.4248 suggests that it’s a correction to the up trend from 1.1409 (2020 low) only. While deeper fall cannot be ruled out yet, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 1.1409 to 1.4248 at 1.3164, at least on first attempt, to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 1.3833 resistance will argue that the correction has completed and bring retest of 1.4248 high. However, sustained trading below 1.3164 will revive some medium term bearishness and target 61.8% retracement at 1.2493. December 01,...

USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

Image
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9211; (P) 0.9242; (R1) 0.9259; More …. Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains on the downside for the moment. Fall from 0.9372 is accelerating and should target 0.9084 support first. Firm break there will argue that choppy rise from 0.8925 has completed, and fall from 0.9471 is resuming. Deeper decline would be seen through 0.8925. On the upside, break of 0.9213 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But risk will stay mildly on the downside as long as 0.9372 resistance holds, in case of recovery. In the bigger picture, the corrective structure of the rebound from 0.8925 argues that fall from 0.9471 is not complete yet. It could either be the second leg of pattern from 0.8756 (2021 low), or resuming larger down trend from 1.0237 (2018 high). We’d pay attention to the downside momentum and assess the odds later. But for now, medium term outlook will be neutral at best as long as 0.9471 resistance holds. December 01, 2021 at 02:06AM ActionForex.co...

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Image
Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.03; (P) 113.50; (R1) 114.00; More… Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the downside with focus on 112.71 support. Sustained break there will argue that fall from 115.51 is already correcting whole rise from 102.58. Deeper decline would then be seen to 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 115.51 at 110.57. On the upside, above 113.94 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But risk will stay on the downside as long as 115.51 resistance holds, in case of recovery. In the bigger picture, no change in the view that rise from 102.58 is the third leg of the up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). Such rally should target a test on 118.65 (2016 high) on resumption. However, firm break of 109.11 structural support will argue that the trend might have reversed and bring deeper fall to 107.47 support and possibly below. December 01, 2021 at 01:50AM ActionForex.com https://ift.tt/2ZEacqX

What the data is saying: Covid cases in South Africa's omicron epicenter fell again today

Image
Forget the talking heads, follow the data Everyone pretends like they're researching and following the data but when the CEO of Moderna speculates on vaccine ineffectiveness, everyone abandons the data and clings to authority. Here's some hard data: Covid cases in Guateng -- which is the centre of South Africa's covid outbreak -- fell to 1909 on November 29 from 2308 a day earlier. Here's the recent progression: 25 Nov : 1950 26 Nov : 2173 27 Nov : 2629 28 Nov : 2308 29 Nov : 1909 In every other province in the country, the number of new cases are negligible (Western Cape is highest at 119). In terms of positivity, it's high with 10.7% of people testing positive. Hospital admissions: 25 Nov : 98 26 Nov : 60 27 Nov : 30 28 Nov : 17 29 Nov : 79 2414 people are currently admitted, 234 are in the ICU and 112 ventilated. The peak was near 20,000 last January. The population of South Africa is 53 million and around 23% are vaccinated. Draw your own ...

US Sept Case-Shiller 20-city house price index +19.1% y/y vs +19.3% expected

Image
HIGH RISK WARNING: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives, experience level, and risk tolerance. You could lose some or all of your initial investment; do not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. Educate yourself on the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial or tax advisor if you have any questions. ADVISORY WARNING: FOREXLIVE™ provides references and links to selected blogs and other sources of economic and market information as an educational service to its clients and prospects and does not endorse the opinions or recommendations of the blogs or other sources of information. Clients and prospects are advised to carefully consider the opinions and analysis offered in the blogs or other information sources in the context o...

US Sept FHFA house price index +17.7% y/y vs +18.5% prior

Image
HIGH RISK WARNING: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives, experience level, and risk tolerance. You could lose some or all of your initial investment; do not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. Educate yourself on the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial or tax advisor if you have any questions. ADVISORY WARNING: FOREXLIVE™ provides references and links to selected blogs and other sources of economic and market information as an educational service to its clients and prospects and does not endorse the opinions or recommendations of the blogs or other sources of information. Clients and prospects are advised to carefully consider the opinions and analysis offered in the blogs or other information sources in the context o...

OPEC November oil output rose 220K bpd

Image
OPEC November oil output rose 220K bpd Reuters secondary sources survey OPEC had pledged to increase production by 400k bpd Total production was 27.74 mbpd Compliance with cuts up to 120% from 118% Saudi Arabia and Iraq boosted output in line with the agreement along with Kuwait, the UAE and Algeria. Output fell in Libya due to pipeline maintenance while it fell in Angola to a record low, perhaps owing to tanker schedules. Invest in yourself. See our forex education hub. Subscription Confirmed! Thank you for subscribing Trade with Top Brokers Must Read Technical Analysis Forex Orders Central Banks December 01, 2021 at 01:57AM Adam Button https://ift.tt/3D8PLzO

Risk Selloff Resumes on Omicron, Dollar Vulnerable Against Euro and Yen

Image
Risk Selloff Resumes on Omicron, Dollar Vulnerable Against Euro and Yen Nov 30 21, 13:49 GMT Selloff in stock markets resume today, after Moderna Chief Executive Stéphane Bancel foresaw “material drop” in effectiveness of current vaccines on Omicron. Benchmark treasury yields also tumble sharply on safe haven flows. In the currency markets, Canadian Dollar lead commodity currencies lower, as oil price tumble. Dollar is dragged down by steep falling in treasury yield. At the same time, Yen, Swiss Franc and Euro are the strongest. Technically, EUR/USD is finally making some concrete progress, pressing 1.1373 minor resistance. Firm break there will confirm short term bottoming at 1.1185 and bring stronger rise back to 55 day EMA (now at 1.1518). At the same time, USD/JPY is also pressing 112.71 structural support. Sustained break there will bring larger scale correction. In Europe, at the time of writing, FTSE is down -0.85%. DAX is down -1.07%. CAC is down -1.03%. Germany 10-year ...