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The EUR is the strongest and the CAD is the weakest as NA traders enter for the day

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The USD is mostly lower to start the day. Month end. Stocks lower.  Yields down. The Omicron ghost has spooked the market again today after a reprieve yesterday. Moderna CEO warned that the current vaccines might not be effective with the variant.  Regeneron said that the antibiotic cocktail is less effective against Omicron virus (results from early tests). That news helped to send stocks lower, yields lower, and oil lower. Fed chair Powell will testify on Capitol Hill.  His pre-released remarks were more hawkish saying that inflation is likely to linger well into next year and that the concerns with the virus could reduce people's willingness to work in person, increasing supply constraints.  Feds Williams and Clarida are also scheduled to speak today. Treasury Secretary Yellen is also testifying. European inflation rates were higher than expectations with the flash CPI estimate for November rising to 4.9% vers...

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1243; (P) 1.1286; (R1) 1.1366; More … EUR/USD is staying in consolidation from 1.1185 and intraday bias remains neutral. Further decline is still in favor as long as 1.1373 resistance holds. Break of 1.1185 will target 161.8% projection of 1.1908 to 1.1523 from 1.1691 at 1.1068 next. However, firm break of 1.1373 will indicate short term bottoming and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound. In the bigger picture, there are various ways of interpreting the fall from 1.2348 (2021 high). It could be a correction to rise from 1.0635 (2020 low), the fourth leg of a sideway pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low), or resuming long term down trend. In any case, outlook will now stay bearish as long as 1.1703 support turned resistance holds. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 1.0635 to 1.2348 at 1.1289 would pave the way back to 1.0635. November 30, 2021 at 01:57AM ActionForex.com https://ift.tt/3lE20yP

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3286; (P) 1.3326; (R1) 1.3375; More … GBP/USD is staying in consolidation from 1.3277 and intraday bias remains neutral first. Upside of recovery should be limited below 1.3512 resistance to bring another fall. Break of 1.3277 will resume the decline from 1.4248 to 1.3164 fibonacci level next. Nevertheless, break of 1.3512 will indicate short term bottoming and bring stronger rebound. In the bigger picture, the structure of the fall from 1.4248 suggests that it’s a correction to the up trend from 1.1409 (2020 low) only. While deeper fall cannot be ruled out yet, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 1.1409 to 1.4248 at 1.3164, at least on first attempt, to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 1.3833 resistance will argue that the correction has completed and bring retest of 1.4248 high. However, sustained trading below 1.3164 will revive some medium term bearishness and target 61.8% retracement at 1.2493. November 30, 2021 at 01:55AM Actio...

USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9187; (P) 0.9274; (R1) 0.9329; More …. Intraday bias in USD/CHF stays mildly on the downside at this point. Current fall from 0.9372 would target 0.9084 support first. Firm break there will argue that choppy rise from 0.8925 has completed, and fall from 0.9471 is resuming. Deeper decline would be seen through 0.8925. For now, risk will stay mildly on the downside as long as 0.9372 resistance holds, in case of recovery. In the bigger picture, the corrective structure of the rebound from 0.8925 argues that fall from 0.9471 is not complete yet. It could either be the second leg of pattern from 0.8756 (2021 low), or resuming larger down trend from 1.0237 (2018 high). We’d pay attention to the downside momentum and assess the odds later. But for now, medium term outlook will be neutral at best as long as 0.9471 resistance holds. November 30, 2021 at 01:53AM ActionForex.com https://ift.tt/3DaEAXK

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.48; (P) 113.92; (R1) 114.79; More… No change in USD/JPY’s outlook and intraday bias remains on the downside for 112.71 support. Sustained break there will argue that fall from 115.51 is already correcting whole rise from 102.58. Deeper decline would then be seen to 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 115.51 at 110.57. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 115.51 resistance holds, in case of recovery. In the bigger picture, no change in the view that rise from 102.58 is the third leg of the up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). Such rally should target a test on 118.65 (2016 high) on resumption. However, firm break of 109.11 structural support will argue that the trend might have reversed and bring deeper fall to 107.47 support and possibly below. November 30, 2021 at 01:14AM ActionForex.com https://ift.tt/3FZZJW3

Can You Really “Start Over” in Forex Trading?

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Partner Center Find a Broker If you’ve been trading long enough, then you’ve likely experienced a time when you feel like you’ve lost your trading mojo . Whether it’s because you took a long break from trading; had a string of losing trades, lost your edge in the markets, or blew your account , there will be times when you feel like you have to start from scratch or quit trading altogether. And if you do choose to start from scratch, then you’ve only made the first step to swimming rather than sinking. It’s only the beginning of the process. Starting over is more difficult than learning how to trade for the first time. When you start over, you’ll have to confront your mistakes, admit your failures, and let go of your ego and your old habits. But maybe letting go is exactly the point. Just like how some tech startups have to “pivot” in order to survive, you also have to let go of your past trading processes and pursue other avenues to discover a better trader in you. So, how c...

Oil retraces 50% of the omicron rout. Does OPEC really have the barrels?

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Oil now above $72.50 You could draw this one a few different ways but WTI crude is testing levels around the 50% retracement of Friday's blow up. Note that the 61.8% level coincides with the small bounce high on Friday. That's going to be the key level going forward. A sharp drop like we saw Friday is the perfect time to use the fibonacci levels. I think there's a good argument for caution in all markets because I think there's a natural inclination to be optimistic here. Of course, there are also the early reports about mild-to-moderate symptoms. I worry that's premature. It feels like a race to find good news right now. In the bigger picture, this note from J.P. Morgan is doing the rounds. It suggests that OPEC+ doesn't have the spare capacity that it claims. That's an idea that's been floating around for years. It makes sense that they would want to bluff because it would help them control the market and the idea they have more oil disincentivi...