US June PCE core inflation 3.5% y/y vs 3.7% expected

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Highlights of the Fed's personal consumption expenditure report

• Prior was 3.4%
• Headline PCE 4.0% y/y vs +3.9% prior (revised to 4.0%)
  
• PCE core MoM +0.4% vs +0.6% expected
• Prior MoM +0.5%
  
• Deflator MoM +0.5% vs +0.4% prior
• Full report
  

Consumer spending and income for June:

• Personal income +0.1% vs -0.3% expected. Prior month -2.0%
  
• Personal spending +1.0% vs +0.7% expected. Prior month -0.1%
  
• Real personal spending +0.5% vs -0.6% prior
  

This is another sigh of relief for markets. I think the flat headline is important as well. We've likely seen the highs now and we can already see the goods inflation and energy inflation rates are turning lower y/y:

• Goods +5.2% vs +5.4% prior
  
• Durable goods +7.2% vs +6.9% prior
  
• Services +3.3% vs +3.2% prior
  
• Energy +24.2% vs +27.3% prior
  
• Food +0.9% vs +0.7% prior

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July 31, 2021 at 12:30AM
Adam Button
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