Canada July international merchandise trade balance +0.78B vs +$1.40B expected

Canadian trade balance data for July 2021:

• Prior was +$3.23B
• Exports $53.75B vs $53.76B prior -- record high
  
• Imports $52.97B vs $50.53B prior

Statistics Canada's first estimate of July GDP was a big disappointment and this will add to the drag. The good news is that the miss came on a 4.2% rise in imports and two-thirds of that was motor vehicles and parts, which will add to production and will be re-exported. I would expect a solid bounce back in Aug-Sept.

On the exports side, forestry products fell 12.7% with lumber -23.6% on falling prices. Without that, exports would have risen 2.0%.  There's more of that in the pipeline with lumber prices falling further in August.

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September 03, 2021 at 12:30AM
Adam Button
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