EURUSD backs off from its 200 hour moving average

Support yesterday near 1.1800 level

As the press conference continues with ECBs Lagarde after the PEPP reduction, the EURUSD is backing off from higher levels. 

Looking at the hourly chart, the price yesterday bottomed rate ahead of the 1.1800 level, and within a swing area between 1.1800 and 1.18044 (see red numbered circles and lower yellow area). The price bounced up and traded above and below the 38.2% retracement in the Asian session at 1.18148. 

During the European session, the price has moved higher today, but stalled right near the 200 hour moving average at 1.18407 (that was in fact the high price for the day).  I spoke to this key level yesterday HERE in the end of day wrap.  The price is currently moving back to the downside and trades at 1.18173 as I type (and as Lagarde speaks). 

A move back below the 38.2% retracement would have traders once again looking toward the support at the 1.1800 area. Move below that and the focus will be on the 50% midpoint of the move up from the August 20 low at 1.17859. 

Watch the 38.2% retracement for close clues, but the sellers did come in where they were expected at against the 200 hour moving average. That keeps the sellers more in control at least in the short term with more work to do (including getting to the 50% midpoint).  

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September 10, 2021 at 12:46AM
Greg Michalowski
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