Germany September preliminary HICP +4.1% vs +4.0% y/y expected

Latest data released by Destatis - 30 September 2021

• Prior +3.4%
• CPI +4.1% vs +4.2% y/y expected
• Prior +3.9%

This fits with expectations laid out by the state readings earlier, as outlined here. In any case, it just reaffirms a further rise in German annual inflation (even if the month-on-month readings were not as drastic). Base effects are a consideration though since there was the VAT reduction in 2H 2020, so there's that to take into account.

But the rising inflation figures are fitting with the narrative that we are likely to see German inflation settle around 4% to 5% by year-end, which will heap further pressure on ECB policymakers in maintaining their 'transitory' stance.

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October 01, 2021 at 12:00AM
Justin Low
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