Locked and loaded for a 75% chance of a downside miss

It's non-farm payrolls Friday

Welcome to another edition of non-farm payrolls Friday.

Here's something from BMO that you'll find interesting:

"Headline NFP has a seasonal tendency to underwhelm estimates in August, doing so 75% of the time and beating 25% of the time by 18k and 47k, respectively, on average"

Combine that with a miss on ADP and the weak ISM manufacturing jobs component and there's reason to bet on the downside.

Then again, there's this from the NFIB:

 
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September 04, 2021 at 12:17AM
Adam Button
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