US retail sales in August set to reflect a drop, how would the market react?

Estimates suggest a 0.7% m/m decline in retail sales for August

The drop on the month will owe much to a plunge in auto sales, so look towards that for any "spin" on the report later today if the market is to go with the narrative that the economy is still holding up ahead of next week's FOMC meeting.

I reckon that will be the case once the dust settles after the report today but any misses or beats may produce some knee jerk reaction of sorts perhaps.

Renowned market economist and top forecaster, Christophe Barraud, argues that there could be an upside surprise to today's report:

My proxies suggest that U.S. retail sales for August should surprise upward.
*Bloomberg consensus: -0.7%e v -1.1% prior

Keeping that in view, the dollar could see a nudge higher alongside Treasury yields before we get back to the push and pull again towards the end of the week.
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September 16, 2021 at 10:39PM

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