Big day of economic data kicks off the new month

October starts with a flurry of key releases

Markets have been volatile this week but little of it was driven by economic data or central bank news.

That's about to change.

Some top tier data is coming today and that will continues through next Friday's non-farm payrolls report. It starts at the bottom of the hour with the US August PCE report. Both the spending side and the inflation side are critical right now as we sort through delta and supply chain issues.

• PCE core MoM  +0.3% expected
• Prior MoM +0.3%
• Core PCE +3.6% expected
• Prior was 3.6% y/y
  
• Headline PCE 4.2% prior
  
• Deflator MoM +0.4% prior

We also get the Canadian July GDP report. A month ago this report weighed on the loonie as it showed Q2 GDP down 1.1% compared to a 2.5% rise expected. The preliminary July estimate was also soft at -0.4% but economists think it will be down 0.2% when we get today's reading. The market mover though might be the advance read on August.

It continues from there with the Canadian Markit manufacturing PMI at 9:30 am ET and the US report 15 minutes later. Then it's onto the ISM manufacturing data where the headline will be important but data on prices, backlogs and inventories will also be key. At he same time we'll get the final UMich sentiment survey, which is rarely a market mover.

Finally, at noon ET, it's the Dallas Fed PCE report.

On the Fed docket, we get Harker at 11 am ET and Mester at 1 pm ET.

All this could be overshadowed by maneuverings in Congress. We were supposed to get a House vote on the infrastructure bill yesterday but Pelosi pulled it on signs that progressives would defeat it.

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October 02, 2021 at 12:12AM
Adam Button
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