Canada Sept CPI +4.4% vs +4.3% expected

Canada September CPI data

• Fastest y-y rise since Feb 2003
  
• Prior was 4.1%
• CPI MoM +0.2% vs +0.2% last month. Estimate 0.1%.
  
• Excluding gasoline CPI increased 3.5% year on year vs 3.2% prior
  
• Gasoline 32.8% vs +32.5% y/y prior
• Full report

Core measures (YoY)

• Median 2.8% versus 2.6% last month. Estimate 2.6%
  
• Trim 3.4% versus 3.3% last month. Estimate 3.3%
  
• Common 1.8% versus 1.8% last month. Estimate 1.9%

The headline is a tad hot and those core measures are generally ticking up. As I highlighted earlier, the BOC business outlook survey had some hidden warnings on inflation in it along with very strong intentions on spending, sales and investment. The Bank of Canada meets next week and there's a good chance we see a more hawkish shift as the market prices in an April hike.

USD/CAD is a bit higher after the report but there's a broad USD bid going through:

October 21, 2021 at 12:30AM
Adam Button
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