Locked and loaded for double jobs day

Canadian and US data coming up at the bottom of the hour

It's non-farm payrolls Friday with a side of Canadian bacon.

The temperature on this US jobs data is diminished because so many Fed officials have said they've basically made the decision to taper already. Powell himself though did leave the door open to holding off if the number is poor. I imagine that would be outweighed by newfound inflation concerns but the downside risks are certainly larger than the upside ones. The consensus is 500K.

One spot I'll be watching is the long end of the bond market if the number is strong. We've seen long-end rallies on hot jobs reports in the past few months in a counter-intuitive trade that looks like the market pricing in a policy error. US 30s are flat at 2.137% going in.

Across the border in Canada, Macklem didn't offer any hints yesterday at waiting on the taper. Sept should be a good month with several provinces fully reopened. The consensus is 60K jobs from 90.2K in August. The unemployment rate is seen at 6.9% from 7.1%.

CAD is trading on oil moreso than data at the moment and oil has been strong in the past 24 hours.

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October 09, 2021 at 12:14AM
Adam Button
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