US August PCE core inflation +3.6% vs +3.6% y/y expected

Highlights of the Personal Consumption Expenditure report

• PCE core MoM +0.3% vs +0.3% expected
• Prior MoM +0.3%
• Core PCE +3.6% vs +3.6% expected
• Prior was 3.6% y/y
  
• Headline PCE +4.3% vs +4.2% prior
  
• Deflator MoM +0.4% vs +0.4% prior

Consumer spending and income for June:

• Personal income -0.2% vs +0.3% expected. Prior month  +1.1%
  
• Personal spending +0.8% vs +0.6% expected. Prior month +0.3%
  
• Real personal spending +0.4% vs -0.1% prior

These numbers are largely in line with the consensus but the income line was surprisingly soft. The good news (for the Fed) is that there's no big surprise jump in inflation.

Maybe the most-notable data point looking forward is that at 9.4% the personal savings rate remains extraordinarily high. That's down from 10.1% in July but shows there is still plenty of fuel in the tank for later.

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October 02, 2021 at 12:30AM
Adam Button
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