USDJPY moves back above 100 hour MA after CPI data

The pair moves back into the Red Box after a couple days below

The USDJPY has moved back into the "Red Box" that had confined the pair going back to October 12ish (see red numbered circles).  The pair moved below that area during trading on Monday, and again on Tuesday.  Bearish break. 

The subsequent fall away from that area took the price down toward the 50% midpoint of the move up from the October 4 low near 112.754. The lows yesterday reached 112.719 and 112.734 at the two low extremes, but found a more balanced market with buyers and sellers fighting it out against the target 50% level.  The low today reached 112.77 today just above the 50% level. That gave buyers some confidence and they pushed the price higher.

The higher-than-expected CPI has now pushed the price back above the 38.2% retracement at 113.211, and the 100 hour moving average at 113.324. The pair is back within the confines of the "Red Box" (failed break).  The high just reached 113.485.

With the failed break outside the red box, it will now take a move back below the 100 hour moving average at 113.324, and the 38.2% retracement level 113.211 to give sellers more comfort. Absent that, and the buyers would look toward the 200 hour MA at 113.647 is the next key upside target.

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November 11, 2021 at 02:19AM
Greg Michalowski
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