EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1795; (P) 1.1823; (R1) 1.1871; More…

Immediate focus is now on 1.1880 resistance in EUR/USD. Firm break there will firstly indicate short term bottoming at 1.1751, on bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 1.1974 resistance first. Sustained break there will argue that whole corrective pattern from 1.2348 has completed, and bring stronger rise back to 1.2265/2348 resistance zone. On the downside, break of 1.1751 will resume the fall from 1.2265, as the third leg of correction from 1.2348, to 1.1703 support.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally could be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1602 support holds. Reaction from 1.2555 should reveal underlying long term momentum in the pair. However sustained break of 1.1602 will argue that the rise from 1.0635 is over, and turn medium term outlook bearish again.

July 30, 2021 at 01:02AM
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