EURUSD retraces gains in volatile up and down trading

Better GDP, lower US PCE not helping as Friday trading (month end) dominates.

The EURUSD has retraced gains in volatile up and down trading. The higher EU GDP and lower US PCE is not helping the common currency. 

Looking at the hourly chart, the pair saw corrective action in the early Asian session, but rose going into the European session.  The price rise for the day peaked at 109.08 within a modest swing area going back to the end of June (before another leg lower started on June 30).  

The last 3 of 4 hours has seen lower levels on the hourly chart but with volatile up and down swings.  Nevertheless, the pair has moved back toward the low for the day at 1.1874. The North American low has reached 1.1877 so far.

The move takes the price back below the 61.8% retracement of the move down from the June 25 high. That level comes in at 1.18893.  Stay below that level would be more bearish intraday/in the short term at least.

The pair is testing a swing area (see green numbered circles) between 1.1877 and 1.18815.  A move lower would have traders targeting the 50% midpoint of the same trading range at 1.18629.  Recall from yesterday's trade the price moved up to test that level, initially found some sellers against the level, before regrouping and rising above (and staying above).  

For the week, the low was based on Monday at 1.1763. The high was reached today at 1.1908 (total range of 145 pips which is about average for 2021).  The first four trading days saw higher closes (although there was some intraday volatility on Tuesday Wednesday).  Today, the price is lower vs the close yesterday at 1.1886. That level may also be an influence today just because being positive is better than being negative on the day. Keep an eye out for sellers against the level perhaps.  
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July 31, 2021 at 01:15AM
Greg Michalowski
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