US initial jobless claims 310K vs 344K estimate

US initial jobless claims and continuing claims

The weekly US initial jobless claims and continuing claims are showing

• prior week 340K revised to 345K
• initial jobs claims 310K versus expectations of 344K. A new post pandemic low
• 4 week moving average initial jobless claims 339.5K versus 356.25K last week 
  
• continuing claims 2783K versus expectations of 2744K. This is the lowest level for insured unemployment since March 14, 2020 when it was at 1770K
  
• 4 week moving average continuing claims 2840.25K versus 2869.25K last week
  
• The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending August 28 were in Missouri (+7,182), Ohio (+5,563), New York (+3,776), Tennessee (+1,854), and Florida (+1,723), 
• The largest decreases were in California (-7,009), Illinois (-6,712), Virginia (-4,146), New Jersey (-2,496), and Oregon (-1,686). 
  

The data continues to move in the positive direction. The question going forward is how will the lapsing of the extra $300 per week unemployment benefits and the return to school this month in many states, impact the job situation. The JOLTS jobs report yesterday showed record number of job openings (and seven consecutive monthly advance).  Will those jobs be filled now? 

The rubber is about to meet the road. The market will be looking for the results. 

A slew of Fed policy officials will be speaking today. Recall, the US jobs report on Friday came in much weaker than expected although the unemployment did decline in wages were up smartly.

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September 10, 2021 at 12:30AM

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