The next big shoe to drop in the global bond market

Bund yields have been sub-zero since Q2 2019

The bond market is all over the place. The hawkish shift from central banks (aside from the ECB) is being met with dislocations and some nasty, whippy moves.

It's month end so that might be feeding through but it's tough to hear what the bond market is saying.

Technically though, there's one spot that could set off waves of further dislocations. That's the 10-year German bund. Today yields moved up 7 basis points and it's now yielding -0.08%. That's a hiccup away from a return to positive yield. It's also threatening to break the high of the year, which could set off a cascading move.

Given the chop in FX and bonds, it's tough to see how this all shakes out but you would think it leads to some euro inflows, if only among those who have to hold bunds and would be able to lock in a meager return.

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October 30, 2021 at 02:31AM
Adam Button
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