US existing home sales coming up. Why there could be an upside surprise

Home sales may surprise to the upside, economist says

The US economic data calendar is light today but we do get October existing home sales and eurozone flash consumer confidence.

Home sales are forecast at 6.18m from 6.29m previously.

Economist Christophe Barraud believes there will be an upside surprise. He notes:

1) Local/state reports show that, on a YoY basis, sales declined at a faster pace in October (non-seasonally adjusted: NSA) mainly due to a negative base effect (one fewer business day compared to October 2020). However, taking into account this bias, sales probably rose again on a MoM basis (seasonally adjusted: SA).

2) An increase in EHS would be coherent with the trend in Pending Home Sales (PHS).

3) Recent announcements from corporates suggest that home-improvement activity remained resilient.

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November 23, 2021 at 02:56AM
Adam Button
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