Forex Trading For Beginners 2021: USDJPY down on the day but bounces back toward the 100/200 hour MAs

The hourly MAs remain the barometer for buyers and sellers.

The USDJPY is down on the day after sellers pushed the price below the near converged 100/200 hour moving averages (blue and green line currently at 113.84) in the Asian session.

The 100/200 hour moving averages are the short-term barometer for the buyers and sellers. The move below turned the bias more to the downside today and the price rotated toward the lower swing area between the 38.2% retracement 113.21 and the high of a swing area near 113.396. The low price could only get to 113.455 before starting its rebound back to the upside.

The move back higher remains below the close from yesterday, but retested the aforementioned moving averages. So far the sellers have leaned against the level. The current price trades at 113.79. It would take a move above both moving averages (and staying above), to shift the bias back to the upside. Stay below and technically, the bias is in the favor of the sellers.

Overall we are in day 15 of an up and down market between 113.21 and 114.691. The moving averages in the middle and are converged indicative of a non-trending up and down market. At some point there will be a break and run.

As a reminder, looking at the daily chart below, the high price in the month of October was able to extend above the 2018 high price of 114.544, but quickly failed.

Other swing highs from 2018 come above 113.704 (114.03 and 114.20 are other swing levels going back to 2018). Watch the 113.704 today. The price has traded above and below that level the last six or seven trading days, but a move below would be a modest tilt back to the downside with more work to do to break lower. Holding could be a precursor for a run back above the hourly moving average levels once again.

When the price consolidated, buyers and sellers are fighting it out. Little nuances could give away the hand of the buyers or sellers. It is about control and control is gained by building a technical case against technical levels. That may take time, but eventually, there will be a break and run.